The concept of a Summer Movie Wager is simple: assemble a bunch of people, have them create a list of what they predict will be the 10 highest grossing films of 2018, and bask in how wrong everybody was so far down the line when nobody can remember what the fuck we said to begin with. Shamelessly cribbed from the concept popularized by the /Film crew, we here at Freshly Popped Culture very much wanted to get in on the fun of looking foolish in hindsight, so our fab four (Matthew, Jared, Justin, and Jeremy) are doing just that, and seek to defeat them. May the odds be in our favor.
At the end of the summer movie season (a.k.a. Labor Day), we will return to tabulate the scores, and determine who reigned supreme. That is the brilliance of the Summer Movie Wager: you’re either wrong, super wrong, or least wrong. There is no right. There is only the person who screwed up the fewest times, and is therefore the victor.
Without much further ado, here’s how our internal point keeping system works. We run things a little bit differently than some of the other Summer Movie Wagers out there, so pay close attention. It might seem completely arbitrary but, trust me, it totally is.
The scoring system is thus:
- 10 points for hitting a movie dead-on on the list
- 7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
- 5 points if it was two spots away
- 1 point if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10
- 3 points for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10
- 5 points if your prediction on total domestic box office is within $10 million dollars
The winner gets to force the rest of us to play truth or dare on Twitter, and you don’t want to be caught revealing your darkest secrets online (at least not intentionally). I heard Matt committed arson once, he’s a firebug!
MATTHEW’S PICKS:
Dark Horses:
Teen Titans Go! To The Movies — Teen Titans Go! is insanely popular for Cartoon Network, but will that translate to huge box office success? Ask The Simpsons Movie or The Lego Ninjago Movie, and you’ll get widely different responses. It’s a coin toss, really.
Skyscraper — If recent years have taught me anything, it’s that betting on Dwayne Johnson is rarely a bad thing. The man is a star, and throwing him into his very own Die Hard could end up being insanely lucrative….or just do okay. Hard to tell, really, making it a perfect Dark Horse.
Christopher Robin — Call me crazy, but I think this movie is going to do huge, simply because the trailer alone nearly brought me to tears. This might end up playing really well come August, but considering the timeframe of the wager, it would have to make that money VERY fast in order to crack the Top 10.
10. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $110 million
Ocean’s 8 is a bit of a mystery to me, if I’m being honest, just because I think it has the potential to breakout in a way that is pretty much unpredictable. That being said, anticipation seems soft for this one so far, and the film could easily get lost in the summer shuffle. Granted, 15 years ago this was EXACTLY the type of movie that would do well in the summer months (see: Ocean’s Eleven, 12, 13, etc.), but the time’s have changed. Then again, don’t count out Sandy Bullock. She’s still America’s Sweetheart somewhere!
9. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
Predicted Gross: $125 million
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again is not for me. But, for the crowd it is aiming for, it’s pretty much the Incredibles 2 of Summer 2018. The first film made nearly $150 million back in July of 2008 (up against The Dark Knight, no less!), and I expect this one to do about as well. Like My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, I don’t expect it to do quite as well, but I think the gap won’t be all that wide between the two. Meryl Streep is singing ABBA songs, and our parents are still totally into it.
8. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Predicted Gross: $150 million
Hotel Transylvania is actually a decently performing franchise for Sony Pictures, and I don’t expect that to change with the third installment of the series. The summer is light when it comes to animated family fare, and with a story tailor-made to the season (AND a prime July release date to utilize as well), expect families to show up for this one just as much as they did the last few. Which, eh, whatever. I’m just happy Genndy Tartakovsky has a well-paying gig, and will use the remainder of this blurb to remind people that we got a conclusion to Samurai Jack last year, and it kicked ALL THE ASS. Hopefully Tartakovsky can make some money here, and return to that kind of stuff in due time.
7. Mission: Impossible — Fallout
Predicted Gross: $180 million
Mission: Impossible is one of the few non-comic book franchises left in Hollywood that dependably makes money, and six installments in, I’m not expecting a huge drop-off or anything. Tom Cruise is still dangling from buildings n’ shit, and audiences (including yours truly) will still show up to see it. Plus, Henry Cavill back in spy mode should entice some of that big, lucrative Man from U.N.C.L.E. fans into the theater as well. There’s dozens of us. DOZENS!
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Predicted Gross: $200 million
Ant-Man ranks as one of Marvel’s lowest performers, only managing to scrape up $180 million back in July 2015. That was still apparently enough to warrant a sequel, however, a decision that was primarily influenced by its relatively low budget ($130 million) and decent performance overseas. That being said, I think Ant-Man and the Wasp has a good chance of being one of the few blockbusters to outperform its predecessor. The original turned out to be a decent crowd-pleaser, and the character’s appearance in Civil War probably did a lot to boost his popularity. And between you and me, blog reader, I have a sinking suspicion that Ant-Man and the Wasp is stealthily going to be more important to the MCU than it may appear, and that Avengers: Infinity War might even tease things for the character that will leave people VERY curious to see his follow-up film. But groundless speculation aside, Ant-Man and the Wasp should play well come July.
5. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $255 million
I get Fox needed SOME kind of big release for their Summer 2018 calendar, but I can’t help but feel releasing Deadpool 2 smack dab in the middle of May isn’t going to end up being the most fruitful of decisions. Deadpool did so well back in February 2016 because it had a lot of room to breathe, and was truly the only blockbuster of its kinds for weeks on end (also see: Black Panther.) But the competition from Infinity War and Solo is going to cannibalize Deadpool – not enough to make it bomb or anything, but enough to make the possibility of it even approaching the original’s huge $363 million haul a shifty prospect.
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $320 million
Solo: A Star Wars Story is riding little buzz, soft marketing, and overwhelming reports of behind the scenes turmoil, which is enough to make me believe it will be the worst performing live-action Star Wars movie in a while, maybe even of all time (once adjusted for inflation, of course.) But as much as I want to go truly crazy here and peg it with a haul of like $200 million or something…at the end of the day, it’s still Star Wars. The ceiling of this franchise is still rather high at this point, but Disney better watch themselves. If the film A) turns out to not be very good and B) exhausts audiences ultimate interest in the brand, than that ceiling might start shrinking rather fast. For now, don’t expect anything less than $300 million.
3. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $375 million
Jurassic World ended up screwing over my list back in 2015, taking away the expected crown from Avengers: Age of Ultron and grossing an absolutely insane $652 million at the domestic box office. But I very much believe that Jurassic World was an aberration, and that its sequel will suffer quite the heavy drop off once the “wow” factor of a new Jurassic Park movie dissipates. After all, that’s what happened to its forbearer’s first sequel (The Lost World made half of what Jurassic Park made – still GREAT at the time, but not the sensation that was the first.) The film will obviously still be a huge success, but more squarely in the “well-performing sequel” category than the WHAT THE FUCK LOOK AT ALL THAT MONEY one.
2. Incredibles 2
Predicted Gross: $400 million
Does The Incredibles 2 have a shot at being the highest grossing film of the summer? The answer is very much yes, and I was honestly 50% of the way there to predicting that very eventuality. After all, if it can happen to Finding Dory, it can happen with something as eagerly anticipated as the long awaited Incredibles 2…right?
Well, it’s complicated. The first film was a big hit in 2004, but it still topped out in the high $200 million range at the time of its release. To do as well as I’m predicting, the film would have to perform Toy Story 3 numbers, which could very much be out of range for it. But time is on Incredibles 2’s side here, with the first film becoming a classic in the decade and a half since its release. Incredibles 2 also has the luxury of virtually NO animated competition until more than a month after its initial release and, in fact, is facing little competition overall in the month of June. I don’t know, I’m going to bet high on this one. Never count a long-awaited Pixar sequel out. Even A Bug’s Life 2 would probably make like $700 million domestic.
1. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $670 million
Every year, I predict the big Marvel movie that opens the season is going to end up ruling the summer, and every year I am proven absolutely wrong. All that being said…c’mon, I gotta go with Infinity War here. Disney is doing an absolutely slam-bang job of marketing this one as the event film to end all event films, and the anticipation in the air for the film’s release is palpable. Combined with residual Black Panther fever and my pretty high faith the film will deliver big time (The Russo Brothers haven’t let me down yet), and I just can’t reason myself away from choosing any other film as the de facto box office champ of Summer 2018. But check back a few months from now when I’m proven wrong again, though.
JARED’S PICKS:
Dark Horses:
Christopher Robin — This is the only movie of note coming out in August, and honestly, I just threw it in here for the morbid curiosity of seeing that bear come to life in such a creepy way.
Uncle Drew — This is the pick that I had at number 10 for a while, then switched out, then back in. I have no idea of what to make of this one honestly, and I want it to do really well because it just looks like the sort of fun to take us all away from the fact that a second rate reality TV star has the nuclear codes, and is being enabled by a collection of conspiracy theorists, hack Fox News personalities, con artists, crooks, criminals, liars, frauds, phonies, cronies, and the scum of the earth known as the republican party.
Basketball is very good, and I hope this is too.
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! — Well, Mamma Mia, here we go again indeed. This could make just as much money as the original, or close to nothing, and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. There is always a random dark horse that makes it into the top ten, and screws up some lists, and last year it was Girl’s Trip and before that was Central Intelligence and before that was Straight Outta Compton and I think you get my point here, people.
10. Skyscraper
Predicted Gross: $110 million
The Rock is such a magnet for money, it’s not even funny. It’s just a fact, written in stone (or rock) and considering San Andreas did like $150 million domestic, this was the toss up for that ten spot that I wrestled with (get it) before going with Skyscraper and its Super Bowl ad instead of Uncle Drew. They don’t play those commercials anymore, and the Rock is in everything. Sorry Kyrie, the world revolves around Dwyane Johnson because the EARTH IS FUCKING ROUND YOU STUPID TROLL, YOU ARE A ROLE MODEL AND IDOL TO CHILDREN, DO NOT MAKE THEM ANTI-SCIENCE YOU DIRT BAG.
9. Hotel Transylvania 3
Predicted Gross: $125 million
No one has actually seen any of these movies. They are a myth, they do not exist, and any reports to the contrary are fabrications. Somehow, a global conspiracy has laundered money through ticket sales at abandoned movie theaters to generate massive amounts of cash using these “films”, and therefore I expect another 100+ million dollar run. Robert Mueller should investigate this, after he’s done.
8. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $150 million
I so wanted to put this higher, and I really want this to not only be amazing but a smash hit so I can inject more Ocean’s movies into my veins. Heists where you root for criminals to pull a Robin Hood on some evil rich people are my heroin, and I’m addicted to feel good action comedy team ups. But this summer has stiff competition, all packed into May and June, and everything I predict to make more is a direct sequel and not a reboot. As much as I want this to surpass expectations, $150 million is nothing to sneeze at, and would be a welcome success.
7. Mission Impossible 6: Fallout
Predicted Gross: $175 million
I hate the use of fallout in the title. That bothers me so much. Anyways, all of these MI movies are fantastic and they do better in the box office every single time, but at some point there is fatigue, a ceiling on how much old man Tom Cruise and who-gives-a-shit Superman Henry Cavill alongside the same director and cast as the last one. Not that the masses and general audiences notice these things, but the remaining heavy hitters are going to put a damper on what would be otherwise $200+ runs.
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Predicted Gross: $200 million
I cannot believe how little the previous Ant-Man made, and that it has to be ranked so low on this list (not that this is set in stone, in fact this will all be wrong come September). But around the middle of the top ten it’s going to be a slugfest, and every single factor goes into who comes out on top; release date, word of mouth, marketing budgets, if anyone still cares about Marvel movies post Infinity War or if the hunger still exists, etc. This could be way less or way more and I have no clue where it will end up landing, but all hail Paul Rudd and Michael Douglas.
5. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $275 million
For some reason, Disney’s new Salacious B. Crumb FOX is releasing this sequel at the worst time imaginable, sandwiched between two of the biggest entities on the planet: the Avengers and Star Wars / Han and Chewie. What a stupid move, this is going to hamstring what would have otherwise been a runaway success. Black Panther stole the February release date that proved to make Deadpool 1 a smash hit, and now it’s going to suffer for it. No wonder why FOX is being sold to Disney, morons work there. Nothing is in August! Just take that whole month! What are you people doing?
4. The Incredibles 2
Predicted Gross: $325 million
So far, all of these picks are really tough calls, not just because we know what the main 8 movies will be in the top ten, but this entire game will come down to a matter of splitting hairs; Avengers and Jurassic Park seemed locked at one and two respectively, and three – four – five are also somewhat locked, but in what order and how much they make will likely decide this contest. Pixar films make money, the original didn’t in comparison, although that was fourteen years ago, but inflation……..yeah I have no clue with this one, and it could do double the predictions and I wouldn’t be shocked.
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $375 million
I cannot fathom a Star Wars film coming out in May again. I cannot believe it is a Han Solo prequel story. I do not expect any of the bad press or rumors to affect its box office because nobody actually gives a shit, and word of mouth will barely impact its gross. I am mystified at the aggressive release date after the reshoots, and I am thoroughly pessimistic about everything this film stands for and represents. Yet I cannot deny it’s cultural imprint, and while I am completely Star Wars fatigued, and it’s only months after Last Jedi over-saturation / outrage, I ended up placing this one behind the remaining juggernauts below, and Rogue One’s domestic total is not indicative of how this will perform; Donald Glover will be. Not the dude who doesn’t look or sound like Harrison Ford / Han Solo, who should have been cast like 10 years younger so it wouldn’t be a huge deal. Donald motherfucking Glover.
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $400 million
Fuck this movie, fuck the previous one, fuck the other two that were made after 1993, fuck everyone who made Colin Trevorrow rich and famous, and fuck the absolutely preposterous $1.6 billion that this movie made which could have gone to ending world hunger instead of masturbating our nostalgia of dinosaurs. I so want this to do worse, and really wanted to be bold about its placement, but I cannot deny the simple fact that Jurassic World is a top ten all time blockbuster in terms of global box office, and I wish I was dead.
1. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $650 million
This is going to be among the biggest movies of all time and is such a no-brainer. Therefore, it reigns supreme over the course of the entire summer plus the giant weekend coming up IN FUCKING APRIL. If this isn’t the #1 on everyone’s list, then they are idiots who I will enjoy beating. This movie had the balls to move up to late April and start the summer whenever the fuck it wanted to. Disney owns the world and you will pay any amount to see this movie, and you probably have already bought your tickets (you read this website and if I know who our core audience of readers truly are, then I am right). The question becomes how much exactly domestically Infinity War ends up with, and you could go lower than Black Panther ($675 ish), or higher to around $700 million, but I’ll put it at a moderate $650 million. Just think about that for a moment, the sentence I just wrote. Moderate…followed by that much. Moderate amount. Bananas.
JEREMY’S PICKS:
10. Uncle Drew
9. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
8. Ocean’s 8
7. Mission Impossible 6: Fallout
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp
5. Deadpool 2
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
3. Incredibles 2
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
1. Avengers: Infinity War
JUSTIN’S PICKS:
For my Dark Horses choices, I went with three films that from one of the most unpredictable categories, adult leaning comedies. Some times the flop, some times they’re a hit, and occasion, sometimes they become a phenomenon.All the films I have chance to be something because they have built in demographics.
10. The Meg
Predicted Gross: $125 million
It’s a really big ass shark attacking things and Jason Statham says stuff like “Oh My God, It’s A Megalodon”. If doesn’t at least $100 Million+, what we even doing here?
9. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Predicted Gross: $150 Million
Small human beings like these films and are taken to them by large human beings.
8. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $165 Million
I’m fascinated to see how this turns out. It looks slick, has a great cast, and it’s got popular franchise name. But it’s been a while. My thinking is this Girl’s Trip type numbers but you add some because its going to be PG-13 and then you add a little more because people kind of know what they’re getting here.
7. Mission Impossible 6: Fallout
Predicted Gross: $215 Million
You have Tom Cruise fight a Mummy, meh. You have Tom Cruise smuggling cocaine for CIA, okay? You have Tom Cruise playing Ethan Hunt, let’s go! Despite the fact this sixth film in this franchise, the series is thriving under J.J. Abrams’s Bad Robot. Action packed, great locals, and the maybe the last movie star left, these film generally have domestic ceiling around $200 Million and I don’t imagine much change.
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Predicted Gross: $225 Million
Marvel fever will be at epidemic levels after Avengers: Infinity War. Destruction, death, and wondering what next’s will give this franchise a bump from it’s first go around. I don’t know if the comedic tone of this franchise is really the best move after political nature of Black Panther and board shuffling that will occur in Avengers 3 but I’m not really going to argue with The Mouse on how they’re handling Marvel Cinematic Universe.
5. Incredibles 2
Predicted Gross: $255 Million
I have absolutely no idea what to make of this film. First, I thought first The Incredibles was an awful film with a terrible message, and secondly, Pixar’s name doesn’t ring bells anymore. Pixar’s most heralded film in nearly a decade, Coco, barely made $200 Million. I know this is supposed one of Pixar’s most storied properties but the keyword there is “storied”, The Incredibles came out November 5, 2004. I know they’ve seen success despite long layover’s, Toy Story 2 was released in November 1999 and Toy Story 3 was released in June 2010 but A. Toy Story 3 is a masterpiece and one of the greatest animated film ever made and B. Toy Story 3 was the tail end of the Golden Age of Pixar where it was one of the best movie studios in the world at the time. Last year, Cars 3 topped out at $152.9 Million, I’ll add 100 Million to that because people have fond memories of these characters.
4. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $300 Million
Oh, I get it, he uses profanity and tells meta jokes. Sign me up! Deadpool was an awful film but it made $360 Million , so what were getting is probably more of the same. So I’m imaging much of the same box office except that the following weekend, a Star Wars film comes out, so this film is not getting that 360 Million again. Or maybe I’m wrong and this ends up being best superhero film of the year “Looks at Camera & Winks”. There, that was my attempt at one of those third wall breaking jokes.
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $500 Million
There’s a lot going on here. On one hand, we’re getting a story centered around one of the most iconic characters of the 20th Century and someone who is adored by an entire generation. But the rumors around the re-shooting and rewrites are something to consider, yes the production problems are something known to “Film Twitter” and not largely known to the general public but the question still remains, what is this film going to be? A dramatic shift in tone, as it was reported, could lead this film to be “whispers in soft tones” bad. Or maybe it doesn’t matter because everything Star Wars is “critic proof” at this point. But, one thing is assured, this film is going to take a little hit because, this is the first modern Star Wars film to be released in the summer so it has more competition then the previous three film who all saw a December release and whose only competition was the holidays and award films. Lastly, I know this supposed to be a star making performance for Alden Ehrenreich but whatever charisma he’s showing in these trailers is getting dunked on by the swagger Donald Glover is giving us as Lando.
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $525 Million
Two things: 1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is a real dope title, I just wanted to take a moment to say that. 2. I have no idea how Jurassic World ended up as one of the ten highest grossing films of all time. That being said, there’s going to be a serious regression for Fallen Kingdom, this rebooted series lacks the hype for Fallen Kingdom to do numbers near Jurassic World.
1. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $575 Million
There really isn’t an argument about this film not being #1 Film of Summer. The question is does it get Black Panther levels, I say no. I don’t think this film has cultural resonance to get there but I think because of a post Black Panther wave of enthusiasm for Marvel this film surpasses Age of Ultron $459 Million Dollar box office but falls short of first Avengers film by a wide margin.
And there you have it, our picks for the biggest films of Summer 2018. Check back in a few months to see just how massively we all missed the mark.
Then maybe you would like to subscribe to our newsletter, where you will be updated on new articles the moment they hit the site!
